New World Disorder

"The Age of the Unthinkable," by Joshua Cooper Ramo, posits that, because we live in an "age of surprise," where small changes can have big consequences, we need to take a larger view of problems and their solutions, reports Michiko Kakutani in the New York Times (4/28/09). These days, changes "take place not in smooth, linear progressions but as sequences of fast, sometimes catastrophic events." For example, "the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran (was) a single very knotty event that, in turn, gave birth to hundreds of jihadist groups, each which developed different methods of terror… which themselves were always changing and evolving."

According to Joshua, this means we must "possess both an intuitive ability to see problems in a larger context and a willingness to re-jigger … continually to grapple with ever-shifting challenges and circumstances." His solution is premised on a research study "in which hundreds of experts" on a range of subjects "were asked to make predictions about the future." Five years later, their predictions were evaluated, and the conclusion was that those who take a broader view, and embrace change, were more accurate than those who apply "a few big ideas to an array of situations."

So, Joshua "suggests that leaders should develop ways of looking at problems that focus more on context than on reductive answers. And he talks about people learning to become gardeners instead of architects, of embracing Eastern ideas of indirection instead of Western patterns of confrontation, of seeing ‘threats as systems, not objects.’" He thinks, for instance, that instead "of trying to prepare for every possible contingency" leaders should focus on building "resilient societies with strong immune systems," meaning greater investment in "national health care … transport infrastructure and … education."