Traffic Forecasts

IBM is working with the New Jersey Turnpike Authority to make traffic as predictable as the weather, reports Ken Belson in the New York Times (6/6/10). The initiative uses "complex algorithms and analytics … to predict traffic patterns up to an hour into the future on state roads." It will not only alert "drivers to accidents, bottlenecks and dangerous conditions but also estimate what traffic will be like in 10, 20 or more minutes, helping drivers to make choices."

The application uses a combination of "incoming data and historical patterns" to forecast "how traffic will react on various roads under differing conditions." Brian Gorman, director of information technology for the authority, "equated the software’s predictions with a weather map that shows approaching thunderstorms — rather than producing a single prediction for all areas, it provides traffic forecasts for a series of locations."

The updates will be communicated to drivers via "variable message signs in the state," of which New Jersey plans to have 200 by 2012. The authority also plans to expand its number of advisory radio transmitters from 19 to 26. The goal is "to use the prediction software to get drivers out of their cars and into buses and trains, reducing traffic." As traffic expert Tom Gustafson explains, "To the extent you can move individuals to other routes off highways, then freight will have fewer obstacles in its way as well."