reveries - scott goodson

Choking on your handheld? Cool. Because the world's charging up to a new ring tone. Mobiles have become the 21st century equivalent of the Swiss Army knife.

New smart phones like the XDA II, Nokia 6600, SonyEricsson P900 and the Samsung i600 cram a brain-boggling array of functions into a package more svelte than an anorexic hamster.

These days the average road warrior wouldn't be seen dead strolling into a business lounge without a cellular device boasting e-mail, picture messaging, Java, Bluetooth, camera, calendar, 3D games, video screen, MP3 player and polyphonic sound. Market research firm Gartner reckoned that 114.9 million handsets were sold worldwide in the second quarter of last year, coinciding with the mass arrival of camera phones. The figure only dipped by two-percent in the first three months of this year.

The unstoppable rise of mobile phones has started to have a serious effect on rival sectors. Sony recently announced it is to stop selling personal digital assistants (PDAs) outside Japan, citing a declining demand. Others are expected to follow suit. Who would have predicted such a plunge a few years ago when PDAs were the ultimate executive toy? Nowadays it seems people can get it all for less with a cell. Sony considers mobile phone devices a key aspect of its strategy to converge content like music, movies and wireless games with hardware.

But it's not just PDAs that are likely to suffer. Makers of digital cameras could also be in for a shock. Many analysts predict that within 6-9 months there will be more digital cameras sold on mobiles than stand-alone. Already 70-80 percent of handsets sold in Asia pack an on-board camera, with Europe following fast.

Diversity rules in the smart device industry. Just ask Nokia. Its share of the global mobile phone handset market fell sharply in the first three months of 2004. The previously invincible Finns are being outpaced by rivals like Motorola, Samsung, Siemens and Sony Ericsson. Why? Because Nokia is just a phone company. Sony-Ericsson is building high quality digital cameras into its mobile phones, taking advantage of Sony's expertise in digital photography. Samsung is exploiting its background in laptop computers and televisions to produce mobiles with high definition, bright screens -- a must for accessing the internet and playing computer games.

So, the PDA is dead -- roadkill to the juggernaut cell phone. But how many analysts would have linked the mobile miracle to the bankrupting of karaoke clubs of deepest Tokyo?

How many analysts would have linked the mobile miracle to the bankrupting of karaoke clubs of deepest Tokyo?

An article in The Times in the UK recently described how Japanese teenagers, who used to pour into karaoke bars in droves, now download the week's top pop songs directly on to their phones. If they want to sing along, the latest mobile phones have that covered too: Toshiba has introduced a device that turns the phone handset into a microphone. It allows downloaded songs to be streamed through a normal television -- complete with the words and the ever-popular bouncing ball.

Neither is the publishing industry immune from the advance of mobile phones in Japan. Where once train carriages were full of people reading comics or newspapers, passengers have diverted their attention to the screens of their phones. Text-message volumes correspond almost exactly with the commuter rush-hour peaks and troughs.

The retail sector is also gnashing its teeth. The Times reported how Japanese magazine shops have run into difficulties because of a rising tide of state-of-the-art shoplifting. "The picture definition on Japanese camera-phones is now so high that people can surreptitiously photograph the pages of a magazine and then later read their ill-gotten literature from the screens of their mobile phones." Students are photographing entire textbooks. The country's booksellers have demanded that the Government criminalize the practice.

The Japanese market is easily the most advanced in the world -- about 18-24 months ahead of Western Europe. Third-generation broadband technology has been in action since mid-2002. As the phones become capable of ever greater feats of engineering, their presence in daily life has become ever more pervasive.

The latest phones come equipped with a tuner that can pick up fuzzy television broadcasts, and several operators have introduced navigation software that shows the user as a moving blip on an precise street atlas. Video conferencing is commonplace. Many phones now come loaded with a credit device enabling users to buy anything from subway tickets to a packet of dried squid at the local convenience store.

Chat rooms and 'blogs will become more influential than newspapers and corporate websites.

The pace of innovation is furious. Hitachi has just launched a chip enabling mobile phones to play video games at the same frame rate as a PlayStation. Patients can use a new piece of software that uploads medical records to their doctor's computer en route to surgery. There's even a program that turns the handset into a voice-activated television remote control and a phone equipped with translation software for six languages.

As the Times says, mobile phones have made otaku or "geeks" out of the entire Japanese population. That means the rest of us will be otaku by 2006.

So what does all this mean for advertising? The big kahoonie? It means the consumer is more in control than ever. It means brands will have to engage people, not merely disrupt. Word of mouth will reign. We'll have to pay more attention to targeted couponing and tactical offers. We may end producing more videogames than commercials. Broadcast spots will be supplanted by virals, free from restrictions. Our copywriters will spend more time cmmunic8ing in txt rather than prose. In terms of consumer behavior and purchase decisions, chat rooms and 'blogs will become more influential than newspapers and corporate websites.

Each piece of new technology will present us with a new opportunity. Nokia's forthcoming 3220 phone packs a motion sensor that makes a row of LEDs fitted on the rear cover blink in a sequence that spells out letters when the handset is shaken. A quirk of human vision turns the sequence into a message that hangs in the air. Can you imagine its potential for guerrilla stunts? Air messages from rival brands at sponsored concerts! Visible conversations between actors in public spaces. Games overlaid on city streets.

Mobile phones. We've got their number.